White Flight
Gallup indicates that religious white people are split evenly between Democrats and Republicans, an incredible shift from June through September when the GOP ("God's Own Party") held an average 23-point advantage. Even if this trend is grossly exagerrated, a shift of only a few percentage points among religious whites (the group that put George W. Bush over the top in 2004) could translate into huge gains for Congressional Democrats. Could it be that at long last the scales are falling from the eyes of at least some Evangelicals? Are they now learning that Dobson, Falwell and Robertson are false "profits" and the Republicans hold them in "pure contempt"?
Labels: Elections, Religion, Republican Party, Tele-Pharisee
posted by The Local Crank | 5:38 PM
2 Comments:
I don't know. I still think in the end many of them will vote for whichever candidate is anti-abortion, anti-gay marriage. If anyone is going to change their votes this election, I think it will be the moderate, independent-leaning swing-voters and not conservative Evangelicals.
Will Evangelicals change their votes to the Democrats? Probably not in any appreciable numbers. Will they be motivated to turn out and swamp the polls like they did in 2004? That's the $64K question. And remember: it's a tight election with very few "moderate, independent-leaning swing voters." Not many conservative Evangelicals have to stay home to make a big difference.
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