Obamentum?

McCain's post-convention Palin bounce appears to have vanished, thanks in part to Palin's crashing popularity numbers. The trend is now towards Obama, who has once again pulled into the lead in the electoral vote count.

Palin & White Privilege

Excellent article.

H/T Rob at Newspaper Rock

Total Bastard Theatre

1. Michigan Republicans are planning to challenge voters who have received notices of foreclosure;
2. As Mayor of Greater Wasilla, Sarah Palin proposed to charge rape victims for the rape kits used to investigate their cases;
3. As part of his effort to get away from nasty partisan attacks, John McCain accuses Obama of favoring sex education for kindergartners;
4. Getcher oil for nothin' and yer chicks fer free, and most repulsively;
5. The GOP's shameless branding of 9/11.

Bounce?

Gallup notwithstanding, the GOP Convention appears to have had a lukewarm effect at best. My completely uneducated guess is that most of it can be attributed to increased enthusiasm among the Republican social conservative base over Sarah Palin, though there is scant evidence that they will turn out in numbers anywhere near what George W. Bush got in 2004. To the contrary, there is much to suggest a heavy turnout for Democrats in the fall, particularly in some key states.

About that Magical "Executive" Experience...

...if your claim to fame is being mayor a city with 7,000 people, would it be too much to ask that you not have screwed it up? And the tough-talking Governor can't bear to face the Evil Liberal Media unless they show her proper "deference"? Also, apparently it's okay to dare to question the Sacred Surge What Has Absolutely Succeeded...if you are John McCain.

More Convention Fun!

1. Obama knows how to defend community organizers!
2. Paging the commander in chief of the Alaskan National Guard!
3. Lindsey Graham occasionally gives the appearance of having a soul. Nice to have him confirm that he's still the same old vicious lying little turd;
4. Jon Stewart dissects the Palin Hypocrisy as only he can;
5. Yeah, media? John McCain? He's just not all that into you anymore. Sorry;
6. Nice to see them finally abandoning all pretense;
7. Would you buy a used moose from this woman?

Experience and Double Standards

EJ Dionne has an excellent piece on why the same conservatives who embrace Sarah Palin and her paper-thin resume denounced Harriet Miers for lacking the experience to be a Supreme Court Justice. And while we're at it, what mainstream political figure gives an (albeit recorded) address to a bunch of lunatic-fringe secessionists? This is good judgment?

PUMA Overload

It's becoming increasingly clear that the "Angry Hillary Supporter" meme is being overhyped and driven primarily by the MSM and the McCain Campaign, as clearly demonstrated by Our Man in Denver, Hilzoy.

UPDATE: Damn good speech, damn good. Of course, the punditocracy is already on about how she didn't go far enough, with one idiot I watched on PBS even saying she should have explicitly taken back everything negative she ever said about Obama. Please. You couldn't ask for a more unequivocal endorsement. If it's not good enough for the MSM, screw 'em. Nothing that might be positive for Democrats will ever be good enough for the corporate MSM. And if it wasn't good enough for the PUMAs, then they were never really Hillary supporters and they aren't really Democrats and to hell with them, too.

Obama Thoughts, Part 3

1. Good piece on Obama's tax policy in particular and how he is hard to pigeon-hole generally.
2. Democrats are apparently planning to fight this time. Good.
3. Good on Hillary.
4. McCain's lobbyist/campaign staffers are scary. If this isn't an issue, it needs to become one. And fast.

Obama Thoughts, Part 2

EJ Dionne says the worst of it is over for Obama, and the "Guess how many houses the Maverick owns" issue may be getting some traction.

Obama Thoughts

Should Obama be less technocrat and more populist? Obviously, I agree (and there is some evidence he is starting to do so); it may be the only way for him to broaden his appeal to working-class whites. Meanwhile, the Georgia Crisis may not be the incredible boost to McCain the MSM seems to think. And, of course, Dubya the Lame Duck continues to screw the environment. And adopt Barack Obama's plan for Iraq. Some legacy.

Not A Bad Idea, Actually

Arianna Huffington suggests Obama turn up the heat on McCain...on national security. She makes a convincing case. National security is the only area where McCain currently and consistently outpolls Obama, yet his pronouncements on the subject have been nothing but one long string of gaffes and misstatements (including most recently plagiarizing from Wikipedia and accusing Putin of wanting to restore the Czarist empire). The only reason McCain has gotten a pass is the MSM's man-crush on him. Obama should call McCain on it. It's a Rovian strategy, hitting your opponent where he's strongest. Maybe it can work for good instead of evil this time.

UPDATE: MSM continues to carry McCain's water on the Russo-Georgian conflict, even as it becomes more and more apparent that he has no idea what he's talking about.

Defining Obama

Some excellent articles on how voters don't know Obama that well (thereby making the election solely about his competence) and the serious danger that McCain will indelibly mark him as a Michael Dukakis/John Kerry elitist early on, with the added bonus of playing into racially-loaded code-memes for "uppity negro." I agree that Obama needs to go on the offensive, and the sooner the better, especially in linking McCain (who still has a residual public image as a "maverick") with the Bush Administration train wreck. He should resist urges to make him look more like a "regular guy." Obama trying to bowl looked exactly like Hillary downing shots: contrived and insincere. Obama is smart; he shouldn't play dumb. The voters can smell a phony coming from a long ways off.

UPDATE: Speaking of "racially-loaded code-memes," Ezra Klein has a great piece on white privilege and white resentment.

John McCain vs. Indian Country

John McCain blows off meeting with Indians to hit the real cultural highlight of South Dakota--Sturgis. Pretty sad, really, given that McCain has had a decent record on Indian issues in the Senate, but evidently hundreds of yuppies pretending to be Hell's Angels is more important. That and the topless women.

UPDATE: Does McCain's willingness to enter his wife in a topless (and frequently bottomless) drunken "Beauty pageant" at a biker bar indicate A) he has no idea what goes on at these things and is therefore a latte-sipping elitist; or B) he does know and is just a sexist jerk? For extra bonus points, what do you think the MSM would be doing if Obama had made the same comments in the same venue?

Changing the Game

If 2008 is to be the kind of transformative, watershed election the most fervent Obamaphiles promise, the key lies with low-wage workers (currently for him by a 2-1 margin) and the 83 million eligible voters who stayed home in 2004 despite the enormous turnout. And to do that, Obama must make these voters aware that not only is John McCain a Republican, he is a George W. Bush Republican.

Obamccain?

First al-Maliki now McCain? How desperate is your campaign when your friends are trying to claim your Iraq policy is almost kinda like your opponent's?

John McCain's Latest Super-power?

Telepathy. Or arrogant neo-colonialist condescension. Whichever.
Though not, evidently, precognition. Or memory. Or consistency. Or whatever.

MSM Coddles McCain!

Film at eleven! Also, gravity still makes things fall when you drop them!

In an Odd Bit of Synergistic Irony...

...the talk is now about Barack Obama running with Republican Chuck Hagel and John McCain running with (kinda sorta) Democrat Joe Lieberman. There's a certain amount of logic to both choices, in that they would boost each candidate's preferred brand image, Obama as a post-partisan agent of change and McCain as a "maverick" willing to buck the party line. Neither would likely directly affect the electoral landscape in the traditional sense; Nebraska is still likely to go red and Connecticut blue. And there's the risk to both men at the top of the ticket alienating their bases with ideologically "impure" running mates, though this seems less of a risk with Lieberman who is Republican in the only way that counts these days: slavish devotion to George W. Bush and the Iraq War.

Should He or Shouldn't He?

The case for and the case against an Obama/Clinton ticket. I continue to believe that Hillary will not be on the ticket for the simple reason that there is no compelling reason why she would want to be. Far better to serve as Majority Leader while waiting for John Paul Stevens to retire. And if Hillary isn't on the ticket, I don't think Obama will pick another woman. The only unanswered question is whether or not significant numbers of Hillary primary voters will stay home or (far less likely in my opinion) defect to McBush without her on the ticket. Almost certainly, Obama's people are furiously polling that very question as we speak, particularly in places like Florida and Ohio (which, signficantly, Obama's people now say he doesn't need to get to 270. You can play with a cool map here to see if you agree). If Hillary does end up on the ticket, you'll know the results of those polls.